Fossil fuels are not the only energy source. Far from it. My take is that the next chapter in energy development will be one of transition, diversification, conservation, and decentralization. You will see more vehicles go to electrical power, reducing oil usage on transportation. That electricity will be increasingly generated in plants that are not fossil-fired, reducing coal and natural gas usage in power stations. You will see so-called "green" power, nuclear power, and probably hydroelectric power in ascendance. In addition to new major power stations, you will see people install generators in their own homes and towers, from solar panels to windmills. Conservation and efficiency efforts will intensify, and we will have an even more vigorous debate on what constitutes "wasteful" energy expenditure. You will see our technologies evolve to become more efficient, and our infrastructure will evolve to match it. You will see, I think, a resurgence of multi-ownership, durables, and mass transit, and a decline in consumables and overall manufacturing.
The infrastructure for fossil fuel energies is vast, sophisticated, and efficient. No other type of energy infrastructure has been replicated on nearly so massive a scale. Consequently, it would be impossible for us to switch overnight away from fossil fuel use. What we must do instead is develop robust infrastructures to deliver alternative power, at first cutting the growth rates of fossil fuel consumption and then, ultimately, actually reducing fossil fuel consumption, steadily down so that it is eventually a much smaller component of our energy system. Expect, then, for fossil fuels to continue to be both a primary energy source and a major source of controversy and global instability for decades to come.
If it were treated like the emergency that it is, we could do all of this a lot faster. As it is, it will probably take most of our lifetimes for alternative power sources to collectively overtake fossil fuels as the major source of electrical power and locomotion. The Earth has already sustained considerable alteration as a result of energy production. That seems fated to continue. History will decide how bad the damage toll is.
I end on a positive note: As I implied, fossil fuels are more viable because we have a fossil fuel energy infrastructure. Wind and solar power are beginning to catch on commercially, as government incentives spur the development of these technologies which, in the short term, produce more expensive power, but in the mid term present major growth opportunities. And of course hydroelectric power and nuclear power are waiting for us to popularize them again. Then there are the technologies which are not as far along, but promise even greater potential in the long term.
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For Clarity: The oil problem is mostly one of transportation: cars, ships, planes, trains, etc. We also use oil in the chemical industries and elsewhere, but to a far lesser extent. The coal problem, which I didn't mention in my last post, is one of electrical power generation, but if anything it's an even bigger problem than the oil one. The difference is that global coal reserves are about ten times vaster than oil reserves.
